[Update 2/22/12] See my new post with updates here [/Update]

In my previous post on the alleged ballot access and delegate count issues of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, I went into great detail on the exact number of delegates that Gingrich wouldn’t have access to because of his ballot qualification issues. After Santorum’s 3 victories Tuesday, I think that his candidacy now merits the same level of detailed analysis.

State by state in order of their dates of voting, here are the states that Santorum will not have the ability to win all of the delegates from.

North Dakota, 28 delegates, March 6

This Wikipedia page alleges that Santorum does not have a full slate of delegates on the ballot in North Dakota. There are no sources cited and I can’t independently verify that claim myself.

3 of North Dakota’s 28 delegates are reserved for party leaders who will have the ability to vote for anyone they want. Santorum is eligible for the votes of those 3 delegates for sure. The other 25 are selected through the caucus process.

However, their apportionment is proportional to the results of the caucus only on a voluntary basis. From the North Dakota Republican State Committee Presidnetial Caucus Rules revised January 18, 2012:

3. Delegate Allocation:
North Dakota’s delegates to the Republican National Convention in 2012 shall caucus prior to or at the convention to discuss voluntarily apportioning delegate representation on the first ballot to reflect the results of the Presidential Caucus, with any fractional result rounded to the nearest whole delegate. However, any such apportionment on the first ballot shall be strictly voluntary. The delegates remain free to vote their conscience on all balloting.

I read this to mean that the delegates can vote for whichever candidate they choose in any round of voting at the convention. The proportional awarding of delegates would mean that even if Santorum weren’t eligible to receive the votes of all the delegates and they follow the voluntary recommendation, it wouldn’t matter because he won’t win 100% of the vote anyways. No candidate has received 60% of the vote in any state so far and thus if Santorum even has half the full slate of delegates, he is unlikely to miss out on any.

Ohio, 66 delegates, March 6

Like many states, Ohio reserves 3 delegate slots for GOP party leaders. 63 are allocated through the primary process. 15 of the delegates go to the winner of the state if they carry 50% of the vote or in the event that no candidate breaks that threshold are split proportionally between all the candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. The remaining 48 delegates are awarded in groups of 3 to the winner of each of the state’s 16 Congressional districts.

Santorum failed to field slates of 3 delegates in the 6th, 9th, or 13th Congressional districts. That means he is ineligible to win only 9 of the states delegates.

Virginia, 49 delegates, March 6

Santorum is simply not on the ballot for the primary here. All of the delegates are bound to the winner of the state and Congressional districts.

Illinois, 69 delegates, March 20

Illinois has 3 party leaders that are automatically delegates and selects 12 uncommitted delegates at the state convention. Santorum will of course be eligible to receive the votes of all 15 of those delegates.

The state also awards between 2 and 4 delegates to each Congressional district on the basis of how they voted in the last Presidential election for a total of 54 more from the 18 districts. Santorum doesn’t have slates of delegates in 4 of the 18 districts. Santorum isn’t on the ballot for the 2 delegates each of the 4th and 7th district, the 3 delegates of the 5th and 3 delegates of the 13th district.

The tricky thing is that the voters get to cast a vote for the candidate they prefer and then vote individually for the delegates they want to send to the National Convention. As a former delegate explains on the Daily Paul:

The remaining 54 delegates will be elected from Illinois’ 18 congressional districts. Each congressional disctrict elects either 2, 3 or 4 delegates, based on some criteria (probably the number of registered republicans in the district, or the district’s previous republican vote totals). The names of the delegates (and alternates) are actually on the ballot, and voters cast their votes for specific delegate candidates. (I was a Ron Paul delegate candidate in IL-CD14 in 2008, so I know what I’m talking about.) In other words, there’s no real link between voting for the presidential candidate and voting for delegates. You could theoretically vote for Gingrich for president and vote for Ron Paul’s four delegates in your district.

The other issue is that the delegates are not bound to the candidates they’ve indicated they will support. There is nothing stopping say for example Gingrich’s delegates pledging to vote for Santorum if he wins their district and doing so in Tampa.

At most Santorum is missing 10 delegates from Illinois but in a best case scenario he might not lose any at all.

Washington DC, 19 delegates, April 3

Santorum is not on the ballot and cannot received the support from any of the Districts 16 pledged delegates. He would still be eligible for the votes of the 3 unpledged DC delegates.

Indiana, 46 delegates, May 8

Santorum is challenging the disqualification of some of his signatures that would have allowed him to be on the ballot in Indiana.

In the event that Santorum is on the ballot, he would be eligible for all 46 delegates. If he is not, then Santorum would not be able to receive the 27 delegates awarded to the winners of each Congressional district.

In either case, Santorum would be eligible for the votes of the 16 delegates selected at the state convention and the 3 slot reserved for party leaders.

Update 2/10/2012: Tennessee,  58 delegates, March 6

Tennessee awards only 41 through the primary process. 3 are reserved spots for party leaders and 14 are determined by the state Executive Committee. Of the 41 remaining 14 are allocated to the winner of the entire state and the other 27 are allocated through the state’s 9 House districts through a modified proportional system.

Santorum’s name is on the ballot, however he hasn’t registered a single delegate. However, the Knox News Sentinel has reported that it might not matter because party rules allow the state Republican Executive Committee to appoint them later.

Conclusion

In summary, it appears as if in a worst case scenario for Santorum, his ballot access problems will cost him a shot at up to 111 delegates. In a best case scenario where his challenge to ballot status in Indiana succeeds and he could convince other candidates delegates to support him in Illinois, he would only be missing out on 74 delegates.

All of this assumes of course that Santorum would win every delegate in all of these states. Given the proportional awarding of the delegates in many of these states, it is virtually impossible that he would have done that anyways. Being ineligible for the 49 delegates of Virigina constitutes at worst almost half the damage to Santorum’s delegate winning prospects. However, if he wouldn’t have won there anyways, he really is losing very few delegates from not being on the ballot.

Of the 1144 delegates Santorum would need to become the nominee, not being eligible for all of the delegates he could be certainly won’t help him, but the number of delegates he can’t receive are far from enough to stop him from being the nominee. If he gains momentum and continues to win states, he will have no problem amassing enough delegates to win.

Update 2/19/12 See my post on Santorum’s delegate issues in Alabama here.