In the 2008 Republican primary, Ron Paul failed to win a single state, but took second in 10 and came in third place in 17 states. Given his success already in 2012 and his delegate focused strategy, it is incredibly likely that he will come away with the winner in multiple states. Keep in mind that there are only 22 delegates up for grabs from Iowa and a paltry 12 in New Hampshire. Every single state or territory on this list has more delegates than that.

Many of the state (and territories) are difficult to gauge the chances of any candidate in, but here is the ranking of the states I estimate Ron Paul stands the best chance of winning in 2012 and why:

10. (tie) U.S. Virgin Islands 9 / Northern Mariana Islands 9 – There were 115 votes in the 2008 Northern Mariana Island caucus which is fewer likes than the Northern Mariana Islands for Ron Paul 2012 Facebook page has. There were 324 votes cast in the 2008 US Virgin Island caucus and “Uncommitted” won a plurality of them. Unlike Guam and American Samoa where Ron Paul didn’t receive any votes, he at least got some of them in these two locations. With such low turnout, it only makes sense that his chances are as good as anyones’.

9. Nevada, 28 delegates – Mitt Romney dominated here in 2008, but Ron Paul did come in second. The potential to win delegates through the proportional allocation rules means the campaign has been focusing here heavily for months. The prospects of potentially spending a day or two in Las Vegas should tempt plenty of college kids to take the campaign up on their offer of free housing and food in exchange for helping with last minute campaigning and get out the vote efforts. Romney’s momentum has slowed after a disappointing finish in South Carolina and Paul stands a good chance to capitalize and build some momentum of his own.

8. Wyoming, 29 delegates – Wyoming a caucus that votes for delegates themselves rather than the presidential candidates they will be voting for and has a pretty convoluted process for doing so. It isn’t a good sign that Ron Paul didn’t win the vote of a single delegate in 2008, but 4 of them voted for people other than John McCain. We don’t know who actually wins the delegates for sure until the convention, but given his success in the surrounding states, it’s reasonable to think that he stands a good chance to pick up the votes of a number of delegates, perhaps a plurality.

7. Alaska, 27 delegates – Super Tuesday will find Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich winning their home states of Massachusetts and Georgia and preoccupied in battles over the greater numbers of delegates and media coverage in Ohio and Tennessee. Paul took a close third here to Romney and Huckabee finishing with over 17% of the vote. He was the only candidate to campaign to visit there in 2008 and his campaign will devote it the most attention by far while the other candidates are distracted by Super Tuesday contests elsewhere. Having a closed caucus that requires registering as a Republican 30 days in advance doesn’t help his chances, but the favorable Republican electorate more than makes up for it.

6. Louisiana, 46 delegates  - Ron Paul took second in this caucus in 2008 beating out Mitt Romney. The campaign has made it a priority this time around opening up an office there since September. The date is favorable too falling in within 11 days of primaries in Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri and Illinois all of which except Mississippi have more delegates and just 10 days before the state with the second most delegates, Texas, which is winner-take-all. It will be a prime state for the other campaigns to skip or at least not spend too much time on if the race is still competitive.

5. South Dakota, 28 delegates – Paul received almost 17% of the vote here in 2008, good enough for second to McCain in the June primary. There were 60,000 total votes cast then in a state with a population of a little over 800,000. If Paul can match the almost 4.3% of the population that he got to vote for him in New Hampshire in the more strongly Republican South Dakota, he would net nearly 35,000 votes which would make him competitive with the 42,000 votes John McCain got in 2008 after clinching the nomination.

4. Montana, 26 delegates – Ron Paul took second here in 2008 in the caucus on Super Tuesday with almost 25% of the vote and the non-binding primary in June with over 21% despite the fact that McCain had long since wrapped up the nomination. The 2008 caucus only allowed county party officials to vote which made his success even more remarkable. This time there is only an open primary which takes place in June with only the Utah primary left and if the race is already decided the presumptive nominee might not bother running a campaign. In 2008 there were only 1,630 votes cast in the caucus in this state of close to a million. Finding a thousand Ron Paul supporters willing to caucus shouldn’t be too hard, especially if those delegates will allow the Paul delegates to increase their influence on the Republican platform.

3. Puerto Rico, 23 delegates – Sam Stein highlighted Paul’s chances to wrap up Puerto Rico’s 23 delegates in a Huffington Post article about the strategy cues his campaign has taken from Obama’s 2008 victory. He points out that only 208 votes were cast in the 2008 caucuses and that the Paul campaign seems to be the only one with a presence there, highlighting a Puerto Rican businessman in their Hispanics for Ron Paul group and the work of independent grassroots efforts from supporters. Puerto Rico has a population of almost 4 million and while there may not be very many people interested in Republican politics, if they are the only ones trying, a couple hundred Paul supporters could be all it takes to win.

2. North Dakota, 28 delegates – A second Super Tuesday caucus that will provide Paul has a good chance to win while his opponents are distracted elsewhere. He won over 21% of the vote in 2008 losing to Mitt Romney by 1,500 votes. During the 2008 campaign, North Dakota’s residents gave a higher percentage of their total campaign donations than any other state. This is an open caucus and a state the Paul campaign has been targeting. He had a campaign headquarters open here before Gingrich had one in Iowa and his finish will reflect it.

1. Idaho, 32 delegates – With his opponents campaign elsewhere on Super Tuesday, Paul should improve upon the nearly 24% he received in the May 2008 primary. The change to a much earlier caucus should allow Ron Paul to replicate turnout from many of the same kind of voters who powered Barack Obama to a sizable victory there in February of 2008. The Mormon population should help Romney, but few state’s have a political that aligns better with Paul’s views which bodes well for his chances. Paul received almost 30,000 votes in the primaries 4 years ago and if caucus turnout is closer to the turnout at the Democratic caucus last time – only 21,224 votes, even half that should be enough to carry the state.